National industrial production fell by 1.2% from November to December, with drops in 12 of the 15 areas surveyed. With the result of the last month of the year, 2025 ends with an increase of 0.6% compared to 2024, showing positive rates in 10 of the 18 areas surveyed. The data are from the Monthly Survey of Industry (PIM) Regional, released today (10) by the IBGE.

The biggest increases in the year were those in Espírito Santo (11.6%) and Rio de Janeiro (5.1%), mainly due to mining and quarrying industries (crude oil, pelleted or sintered iron ore, and natural gas) in the former, and mining and quarrying industries (crude oil and natural gas) in the latter.

Santa Catarina (3.2%), Goiás (2.4%), Rio Grande do Sul (2.4%), Minas Gerais (1.3%), and Pará (0.8%) were other areas that showed positive rates above the national average (0.6%). Paraná (0.3%), Bahia (0.3%), and Amazonas (0.1%) also recorded positive changes in production in the cumulative index for 2025.

“National industry ended 2025 with a 0.6% increase, a result that reflects the slowdown throughout the year, although most of the surveyed locations (10 out of 18) recorded positive rates. The main influence came from Rio de Janeiro, whose industrial production grew by 5.1%, driven mainly by the mining and quarrying sector, with increased oil and natural gas extraction. Next was Espírito Santo, with an 11.6% increase, also sustained by the mining and quarrying sector, thanks to growth in oil, iron ore, and natural gas. Santa Catarina appears as the third principal influence, with an increase of 3.2%, driven mainly by the food sector and by machinery, appliances, and electrical materials,” highlights Bernardo Almeida, analyst of the survey.  

The largest increases of the year were seen in Espírito Santo (11.6%) and Rio de Janeiro (5.1%), mainly due to extractive industries (crude oil, iron ore pellets or sintered ore, and natural gas) in the former, and extractive industries (crude oil and natural gas) in the latter.

Santa Catarina (3.2%), Goiás (2.4%), Rio Grande do Sul (2.4%), Minas Gerais (1.3%), and Pará (0.8%) were other locations that showed positive rates above the national average (0.6%). Paraná (0.3%), Bahia (0.3%), and Amazonas (0.1%) also registered positive changes in production in the accumulated index for 2025. 

“National industry ended 2025 with a 0.6% increase, a result that reflects the slowdown throughout the year, although most of the surveyed locations (10 of 18) recorded positive rates. The main influence came from Rio de Janeiro, whose industrial production grew by 5.1%, driven mainly by the mining and quarrying sector, with increased oil and natural gas. Next was Espírito Santo, with an 11.6% increase, also sustained by the mining and quarrying sector, thanks to growth in oil, iron ore, and natural gas. Santa Catarina appears as the third main influence, with an increase of 3.2%, driven mainly by the food sector and by machinery, appliances, and electrical materials,” highlights Bernardo Almeida, analyst of the survey. 

São Paulo accounted for the main negative influence on the cumulative result in the year, with a 2.2% drop. “Among the sectors that contributed most to this performance are petroleum products, with declines in the production of ethyl alcohol, diesel oil, automotive gasoline, petroleum asphalt, and naphtha, and pharmaceuticals, which also had a significant impact by registering a reduction in the manufacture of medicines,” explains Bernardo.

Mato Grosso do Sul (-12.9%) and Rio Grande do Norte (-11.6%) recorded double-digit drops, the highest in the year-to-date index for the period January-December 2025. Mato Grosso (-5.8%), Maranhão (-5.1%), Pernambuco (-3.8%), São Paulo (-2.2%), Northeast Region (-0.8%), and Ceará (-0.6%) also showed negative results in the cumulative index.

Twelve of the 15 surveyed areas recorded negative results in December against November

Against the immediately previous month, in December 2025, industrial production fell by 1.2%, with 12 of the 15 areas surveyed showing negative results. The most significant declines came from Bahia (-10.1%) and Pará (-9.2%). Bahia's industry recorded its highest decline since March 2021 (-11.6%), eliminating the 3.4% cumulative gain in the October-November 2025 period. Pará's industry had its fourth consecutive negative result, with a cumulative loss of 13.4% in that period.

Amazonas (-5.2%), Northeast Region (-5.1%), Espírito Santo (-5.0%), Minas Gerais (-4.7%), Santa Catarina (-2.8%), Paraná (-2.6%), and São Paulo (-1.6%) also had negative rates more intense than the national average (-1.2%). Ceará (-0.7%), Goiás (-0.5%), and Rio Grande do Sul (-0.5%) completed the list of locations with negative rates in December 2025.

We experienced a spread of negative rates from November to December. High interest rates and a contractionary monetary policy help explain the results, in addition to December being a month when several industrial plants implement collective vacations, leading to a drop in the pace of production,” assesses Bernardo.

São Paulo fell 1.6%, reaching its fourth consecutive negative rate, with a cumulative 4.7% loss in the period. The food and chemical sectors were the most influential to industry in São Paulo. “It is worth noting that, with this result, São Paulo is 4.4% below the pre-pandemic level and 25.1% below the highest level, reached in March 2011,” adds the analyst.

On the other hand, Rio de Janeiro (2.3%) showed the biggest increase this month and eliminated the 1.6% decline seen in November 2025. Mato Grosso (1.3%) and Pernambuco (0.8%) also recorded positive results in December 2025.

From December 2024, eight areas recorded increases

Comparing the figures for December 2025 and December 2024, the industrial sector showed a positive change of 0.4%, with eight of the 18 surveyed locations reaching positive results. It is worth mentioning that December 2025 (22 days) had one more working day than December 2024 (21).

Espírito Santo (19.9%) and Rio de Janeiro (10.3%) stood out with double-digit results. Rio Grande do Sul (4.9%), Mato Grosso (2.9%), Minas Gerais (2.0%), Ceará (2.0%) and Pernambuco (1.5%) also showed more intense expansions than the national average (0.4%), while Goiás (0.1%) completed the set of areas with positive rates in the monthly index for December 2025.

On the other hand, Pará (-12.7%), Bahia (-9.2%) and Rio Grande do Norte (-9.2%) had the most pronounced declines. Amazonas (-6.5%), the Northeast Region (-4.4%), Mato Grosso do Sul (-3.4%), São Paulo (-3.2%), Maranhão (-1.9%), Paraná (-1.2%) and Santa Catarina (-0.3%) showed the other negative results in December.

More about the survey

The Regional Industrial Production Survey (PIM - Regional) has been producing short-term indicators related to the behavior of the real output of mining and quarrying and manufacturing industries since the 1970s. It provides monthly indices for 17 Federation Units whose participation is at least 0.5% in the total value of national industrial transformation, and for the Northeast as a whole: Amazonas, Pará, Maranhão, Ceará, Rio Grande do Norte, Pernambuco, Bahia, Minas Gerais, Espírito Santo, Rio de Janeiro, São Paulo, Paraná, Santa Catarina, Rio Grande do Sul, Mato Grosso do Sul, Mato Grosso, Goiás, and the Northeast Region. The survey results can also be consulted on Sidra, the IBGE database. The next release of the Regional Industrial Transformation Index (PIM Regional) is scheduled for March 13th.