Prices in the national industry changed by 0.34% in January compared to December (0.14%), mainly influenced by the basic metal sector, which registered a positive change of 2.73%. This was the second consecutive positive rate after a series of 10 consecutive negative results between February and November 2025. In the last 12 months, the Index showed a decrease of 4.33%. In January 2025, the monthly change had been 0.15%.

The information comes from the Producer Price Index (IPP) for Mining and Quarrying and Manufacturing Industries, released today by the IBGE. The survey measures "factory-gate" prices of products, excluding taxes and freight, and covers the broad economic categories.

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A total of 15 of the 24 industrial activities investigated in the survey showed positive price changes compared to the preceding month. In December, 14 activities had shown higher average prices compared to the previous month. The four most intense changes were: basic metals (2.73%); printing (2.73%); other chemical products (1.70%); and perfumery, soaps and cleaning products (1.67%).

A variable that normally helps explain the results of the IPP, which is the exchange rate, this time even helps explain the 12-month period cumulative rate, in which the dollar accumulated a drop of 11.3% against the real and boosted the decline of the IPP in this indicator. But from December to January, the dollar also showed a drop, of 2.1%, but the IPP showed a positive change. So there were other factors that more than offset this reduction in the dollar and made the index rise.

According to Murilo Alvim, manager of the IPP, the greater influence of basic metals can be explained by the increase in non-ferrous metal prices:

“The basic metals sector showed the greatest change and the greatest influence on the monthly IPP indicator, with a 2.73% increase. And, as last month, this increase was mainly driven by the rise in non-ferrous metal prices, this time highlighting gold derivatives, whose prices were boosted by increased demand, and copper derivatives, which have been experiencing a supply deficit and low inventory.”

Basic metals were responsible for 0.18 percentage points (pp) of influence on the 0.34% change in overall industry. In this same category, other activities that also stood out were other chemical products, with a 0.13 percentage point influence, petroleum refining and biofuels (-0.07 percentage points) and mining and quarrying industries (0.06 percentage points).

“The other chemical products sector advanced 1.70% in January and was one of the sectors that most influenced the overall result of the IPP. This increase was mainly due to the increases observed in fertilizers. The impacts of the higher acquisition costs of imported inputs (particularly sulfur derivatives), already used in a good part of phosphate concentrates in December, ended up intensifying and spreading at the beginning of this year,” highlights Murilo.

The food sector, which has the greatest weight in the IPP, currently representing about 24% of the survey, did not stand out in the monthly indicator, with a change of -0.17% from December to January. This is not a very intense result, but it is the ninth consecutive negative result. With this sequence, the sector accumulates a contraction of 9.84% in the last 12 months and stands out as the main influence on the overall result of the 12-month indicator.

“In this indicator, it is possible to observe that the declines are widespread among the economic groups of the activity, but the main highlight is sugar, whose group presented a cumulative drop of 28.30% in the period, following the decline in prices in the international market, as a consequence of an abundant global supply and high productivity, which were also impacted by the fall of the dollar against the real in this interval, of 11.3%,” explains the manager.

From the perspective of the broad economic categories, the January result registered a -0.70% change in capital goods (BK); 0.54% in intermediate goods (IB); and 0.26% in consumer goods (CB), with the change observed in durable consumer goods (DCG) being 0.22%, while in semi-durable and non-durable consumer goods (NCDG) it was 0.27%.

The main influence among the Broad Economic Categories was exerted by intermediate goods, whose weight in the composition of the overall index was 53.76% and accounted for 0.29 percentage points of the 0.34% change in the mining and quarrying and manufacturing industries.

Completing the list are consumer goods, with an influence of 0.10 percentage points, and capital goods with -0.06 percentage points. In the case of consumer goods, the influence observed in January is divided into 0.01 percentage points, due to the change in the prices of durable consumer goods, and 0.09 percentage points associated with the change in semi-durable and non-durable consumer goods.

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Learn more about the IPP

The IPP tracks the average change in sales prices received by domestic producers of goods and services, and its evolution over time, signaling short-term inflationary trends in the country. It is an essential indicator for macroeconomic monitoring and a valuable analytical tool for public and private decision-makers.

The survey investigates, in just over 2,100 companies, the prices received by producers, excluding taxes, tariffs, and freight, defined according to the most common commercial practices. Approximately 6,000 prices are collected monthly. The complete IPP tables are available on Sidra. The next IPP release, referring to February, will be on March 31st.

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