In June 2025, the positive change of 0.1% of the Brazilian industry against May, in the seasonal-adjusted series, was followed by seven out of 15 places surveyed by the IBGE: Pernambuco (5.1%), Northeast Region (2.8%), Bahia (2.1%), Amazonas (1.5%), Paraná (1.4%) and Rio de Janeiro (0.4%). The data are from the Monthly Survey of Industry (Regional PIM), released today (8) by the IBGE.

This month, Pernambuco (5.1%), Northeast Region (2.8%), Minas Gerais (2.8%) and Bahia (2.1%) registered the sharpest expansions, all of them growing again after retreating last May: -0.6%, -0.6%, -1.6% and -3.9%, respectively. Bernardo Almeida, an analyst of the survey, explains that while there is a positive reading at the national level, the behavior of the production continues to cool down. “The alternation between falling in one month and growing in the other, which many places have been showing, points out a lower intensity in the pace of industrial production. The national industrial sector has been cooling down since the second semester of 2024," comments him.

According to the analyst, "this shows us a significant connection with a more contractionary or restrictive monetary policy through an increase in the interest rate, reflecting their effects on the economic performance and, consequently, on the behavior of both regional and national industrial production."

The highest drop in June occurred in Espírito Santo (-5.8%), which offset part of the 16.5% growth in May. In addition to being the largest drop in absolute terms, it was the second largest negative influence on the index. "Unlike May last, the mining and quarrying sector acted as a negative influence in June. The sectors of basic metals and pulp, paper and paper products have also contributed to the negative behavior of the Espírito Santo industry,” adds Almeida.

Mato Grosso (-2.2%), Pará (-1.9%), Goiás (-1.7%), Ceará (-0.9%), Santa Catarina (-0.8%), Sao Paulo (-0.6%) and Rio Grande do Sul (-0.1%) recorded negative figures as well.

Compared with June 2024, the industrial activity retreated in seven out of 18 places

Compared to June 2024, the industrial sector retreated 1.3%, with negative rates in seven out of 18 places surveyed. The largest falls were in Rio Grande do Norte (-21.4%), Mato Grosso do Sul (-11.7%) and Mato Grosso (-10.8%), all of them with two-digit rates. The Rio Grande do Norte industry was mainly pressured by the sectors of coke, petroleum products and biofuels (diesel fuel). In Mato Grosso do Sul, the pressure came from the sectors of coke, petroleum products and biofuels (ethyl alcohol) and food products. In Mato Grosso, the main influences came from the industry of coke, petroleum products and biofuels (ethyl alcohol).

In the same comparison, the two-digit advance in Espírito Santo (17.4%), was the highest one this month, largely due to mining and quarrying industries (pelleted or sintered iron ore, crude petroleum oil and natural gas).

Ten out of 18 places surveyed rose in industry in 2025

The cumulative growth in the year of the industrial sector, compared to the same period of 2024, reached 1.2%, with positive results in ten out of 18 places surveyed. The leaders were Pará (6.9%), Paraná (5.2%) and Santa Catarina (4.4%).

In Pará, much of the advance came from mining and quarrying and basic metals industries, especially the production of manganese and copper ores. In Paraná, the main influences were the industry of electrical machinery and apparatus; motor vehicles, trailers and bodies; coke, petroleum products and biofuels, and chemicals. In Santa Catarina, the highs were pressed by food products, machinery and equipment and fabricated metal products.

São Paulo industry shows setbacks in the three comparisons

In June, the industrial activity of São Paulo retreated 0.6% against May, free from seasonal influences. Bernardo Almeida explains that the state stands out as the major negative influence, recording its third consecutive negative rate, with a cumulative loss of 3.4% in the period. "The sectors of mining and quarrying industries, motor vehicles and petroleum derivatives contributed to this negative behavior of the São Paulo industry, which is 22.9% below its peak, reached in March 2011," comments him.

The São Paulo industry also reported negative results compared to the same month of the previous year (-1.3%) and in the cumulative index in the year (–8.5%), compared to the same period last year. The sectors of petroleum, food products and pharmaceuticals were the main negative impacts on local industrial production.

More about the survey

Regional PIM has been producing short-term indicators since the 1970s regarding the behavior of the real product from mining and quarrying and manufacturing industries. It brings monthly indexes for 17 Federation Units whose share are at least 0.5% of the total value added of the national industry and for the Northeast as a whole: Amazonas, Pará, Maranhão, Ceará, Rio Grande do Norte, Pernambuco, Bahia, Minas Gerais, Espírito Santo, Rio de Janeiro, São Paulo, Paraná, Santa Catarina, Rio Grande do Sul, Mato Grosso, Goiás and the Northeast Region.

The results of the survey can also be viewed on Sidra, the IBGE database. The next release of the Regional PIM, related to July 2025, will be on September 12.