Eight of the 15 areas surveyed by the Monthly Survey of Industry (PIM) recorded increases from December to January, when national production recorded a null change (0.0%). The main increase was found in Ceará (7.9%), followe by São Paulo (2.4%), the main positive influence on the general indexes. On the other hand, Pernambuco recorded the biggest drop (-22.3%) and accounted for the main negative influence among the areas surveyed. As for the cumulative index in twelve months, industry changed  by 2.9%, with positive rates in 16 areas. Data were released today (18) by the IBGE.

“This null change interrupts a sequence of three months of drops in national industry, resulting in a cumulative loss of 1.2% in the period. In January, there are usually collective vacation to employees, besides interruptions for maintenance of many industrial plants in several areas, which reduces the pace of production. Another factor refers to the macroeconomic infrastructure, as interest have risen in an attempt to stop inflation, a factor that reduces credit lines both from supply and demand,” says Bernardo Almeida, analyst of Regional PIM.

With the biggest absolute increase and the biggest influence on the national result, Ceará recorded increase after two months of negative results, with a cumulative loss of 9.5%. “This result partially makes up for the loss of November and December, influenced by the sectors of food products, petroleum products and textiles," says the analyst of the survey.

The industry of São Paulo, which accounted for the main influence and the second main increase in the month (2.4%), grew once again after two months of negative results, a period marked by a cumulative loss of 5.6%. “The sectors that influenced this performance posively were chemicals, rubber and plastic products, machinery and equipment and food products," says Bernardo Almeida. This result places São Paulo at a level 0.5% above the pre-pandemic one, established in February 2020, and 22.0% below the highest level, registered in March 2011.

Other positive reults in terms of influence came from industries in Rio de Janeiro (2.3%), in the second position, and Minas Gerais (0.8%) in the third one. 

Among the seven places that recorded drops, Pernambuco (-22.3%) recorded the biggest drop and the main negative conribution, a result that follows tow months of increase, with a cumulative growth of 5.7%. “This is the main drop in the state since the start of the time series, due to collective vacations and macroeconomic factors, as well as impacts on the sectors of petroleum produtcs, basic metals and food products.”

Other negative results came from Pará (-3.9%), number two in terms of influence, and Espírito Santo (-2,6%), which was number three in terms of incluence.

Indústria cresce em nove dos 18 locais pesquisados em relação a janeiro de 2024

Industrial production in the country increased 1.4% from January last year, with advance in nine of the 18 areas surveyed by Regional PIM. Santa Catarina (8.6%) and Rio Grande do Sul (8.1%) had the main changes.

Santa Catarina accounted for the second biggest increase and inluence in this comparison. “Increase consists of the good performance of the food products sector, mainly the production of frozen beef and country giblets, besides sausages and other poultry and pork preparations. Another main impact was in the sector of machnery and equipment, with increase in production of valves, faucets, besides centrigugall pumps," says the researcher. Of the 14 activities surveyed in Santa Catarina, 13 recorded increase.

Rio Grande do Sul had the main influence and second biggest increase in absolute terms. The analyst mentioned the “good performance of petroleum products, with an increase in production of diesel and motor gasoline, besides growth in the sector of motor vehicles, especially car pieces, cars, besides trailers and semi trailers. ” Eleven of the 14 activities surveyed recorded increases. 

The other areas that recorded increases in this comparison were Bahia (4.3%), Pará (0.9%), Mato Grosso (0.9%), Paraná (0.7%), São Paulo (0.5%), Goiás (0.2%) and Ceará (0.1%). On the other hand, Pernambuco (-15.6%), Rio Grande do Norte (-15.4%) and Maranhão (-11.4%) recorded two-digit drops and the highest in the month.

Bernardo Almeida explained the factors accounting for the drop above two digits in state sof the Northeast Region. “In Pernambuco, which had biggest absolute drops, there were decreases in the sectors of petroleum products and biofuels. In Rio Grande do Norte, fourth main contribution, there was also decrese in the sector of petroleum products, with an increase in the production of automotive gasoline. In Maranhão, in the sixth position, drop was due to a decrease in the sector of pulp and paper, with decrease in the production of pulp.

More about the survey

Since the 1970s, Regional PIM has been producing short-term indicators regarding the behavior of the real output of mining and quarrying and manufacturing industries. It provides monthly indexes for 17 states whose participation is at least 0.5% of the total value of national industrial transformation, and for the Northeast as a whole: Amazonas, Pará, Maranhão, Ceará, Rio Grande do Norte, Pernambuco, Bahia, Minas Gerais, Espírito Santo, Rio de Janeiro, São Paulo, Paraná, Santa Catarina, Rio Grande do Sul, Mato Grosso do Sul, Mato Grosso, Goiás and the Northeast Region.

The survey results can also be consulted on Sidra, the IBGE database. The next release of the Regional PIM, for February 2024, is scheduled for April 08.